Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the San Francisco 49ers finish the 2026 NFL regular season with a win record equivalent to 10.5 wins or better. It will resolve to NO if they finish with fewer than 10.5 wins.

• Source of Truth: The official final standings on NFL.com or Pro-Football-Reference.com at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season (scheduled to end on January 10, 2027).

• Calculation of Wins: In accordance with standard NFL statistics, a tie game counts as half a win (0.5 wins) and half a loss (0.5 losses).

  • A record of 11–6–0 (11.0 wins) or 10–6–1 (10.5 wins) will resolve to YES.

  • A record of 10–7–0 (10.0 wins) or 9–6–2 (10.0 wins) will resolve to NO.

• Postseason: Playoff games and Super Bowl LXI do not count toward this total. Only the 17 regular-season games scheduled for the 2026 season are considered.

• Shortened Season: If the NFL regular season is shortened, suspended, or cancelled, the market will resolve based on the official win record at the time the league concludes the regular season, provided the 49ers have played at least 12 games. If they play 11 or fewer games and the season is cancelled, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

The 2026 NFL regular season is scheduled to run from September 9, 2026, to January 10, 2027. Under head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch, the San Francisco 49ers enter their 2026 campaign facing a grueling schedule.

The team is projected to travel more than 38,000 miles—the most of any NFL team in a single season. This travel includes two international games in non-consecutive weeks: a Week 1 game against the Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Australia, and a Week 11 game against the Minnesota Vikings in Mexico City. Traders will need to weigh the team's historical success under Shanahan against the physical toll of this record-setting travel schedule.

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