Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Elon Musk's official X account (@elonmusk) reaches 243,000,000 (243 million) followers or more at any point before August 20, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Primary Source: Elon Musk's official X profile: x.com/elonmusk.

• Detailed Count Verification: If the UI on X displays a rounded number (e.g., "243M"), third-party analytics trackers such as Social Blade will be used to verify if the exact follower count has crossed the 243,000,000 threshold.

• Edge Cases: If he changes his handle, the market will track the new handle of his main personal account. If the account is suspended, deactivated, or deleted before reaching the milestone and not restored by the deadline, the market will resolve to NO (unless the threshold was verifiably crossed prior to the account's removal).

Background

Elon Musk has the most-followed account on X. As of early August 2026, his follower count stands at approximately 241.2 million. This market is a prediction on whether his follower acquisition rate will allow him to gain the remaining ~1.8 million followers required to cross the 243 million milestone before August 20, 2026.

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