Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?

10kṀ94k

Jan 1

91%

chance

ALL

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, in the calendar year 2025, US residents can legally participate in at least one Polymarket or Manifold market using real money.

Technology

Manifold

Manifold Business Future

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Manifold have real money markets with at least 1% of the active liquidity of Polymarket by end of 2025?

1% chance

On which days will real-money betting on Manifold be possible for a majority of American adults?

Will manifold allow to bet on two or more markets at once before end of 2025?

2% chance

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

79% chance

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?

11% chance

Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?

70% chance

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ20 NO

@Joshua @Tulip @brod @saulmunn Considering where the metacalculus market is putting the odds, you might want to cash out

@traders , the Metaculus market has not been re-resolved yet so I am reopening this one

@WalterMartin @mods unresolved on metaculus! Give me my money back

@NivlacM uh oh, yeah, @mods I'll need the assist on this one

@WalterMartin I assume Is a request to unresolve. If not, you can resolve it again.

It’ll stay closed until you open it or resolve

@Ziddletwix thank you!

@traders, I'm going to keep this closed for a day or so (and promise no shenanigans on my part on reopening). If Metaculus hasn't re-resolved by tomorrow evening PT, I'll reopen this.