Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?
Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?
12
1kṀ3322034
Increase60%
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will be using Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers. For simplicity, I will compare the median wages of those with bachelor's degrees with those with only high school degrees. The comparison will be made on a percentage basis.
As of 2023, the median weekly earnings for those with a bachelor's is $1493. The equivalent for those with only a high school diploma is $899, meaning those with high school diplomas make ≈60% of those with bachelor's degrees. If the 2033 statistics show that those with high school diplomas make >60% of those with bachelor's, then this market resolves as Decrease. If they make <60%, this market resolves as Increase.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030?
71% chance
Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2040
24% chance
Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030
14% chance
Will the cost of higher education in the US maintain an average growth rate above 3% until 2040?
59% chance
Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035
22% chance
Will women aged 16 to 24 earn at least 10% more than men in the same age bracket by 2027-8?
48% chance
Proportional to population, will the number of white collar jobs in the US decrease by five-fold by the year 2040?
33% chance
Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?
66% chance
Will US college enrollment rates increase from 2021 to 2026?
27% chance
Will enrolment in STEM degrees decrease significantly before 2040?
66% chance