❗IMPORTANT❗

Market Structure:

❗Each player who is ranked 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th will resolve to 20%❗

That means you should mentally multiply all of this market's displayed odds by FIVE. For example, if a player is at 16% in this market, that implies an 80% chance for that player to appear in the specified range.

'Other' can resolve to any multiple of 20%, in the case where multiple players in the 6th-10th place range are not added as specific options.

Why am I using this wonky market structure?

In previous years, the melee top 10 market has tended to suffer from poor arbitrage. I want to benefit from the features of a linked market. The natural choice would be to resolve every player in the top 10 to 10%, but that would make it very difficult to bet with any granularity. The top five players are usually over-determined far in advance anyways, so I thought this structure could be worth trying out as a compromise in order to try and squeeze as much functionality as possible out of the most volatile section of the top 10. We'll see how it goes. Someday Manifold will hopefully allow the creation of multiple choice markets that sum to a number other than 100!

Resolves based on whichever yearly ranking is most prominent in the community by my estimation. If there are competing rankings in 2025 (unlikely) I will select one as early as possible to avoid predictive issues.

For reference: https://liquipedia.net/smash/SSBMRank

Previous market: /Tumbles/which-melee-players-will-be-in-the

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