This question is a copy of this market except resolving at the beginning of 2025.

Will xAI overtake OpenAI as the leader in AI research by the end of 2023?

7% chance. Resolution will depend on benchmark performances and the creator's judgement, which will take into account motor skills, computational efficiency, and subjective general intelligence. Expert opinion may also be considered if the creator deems them to be reasonably unbiased.

Resolution will depend on benchmark performances and the creator's judgement, which will take into account motor skills, computational efficiency, and subjective general intelligence. Expert opinion may also be considered if the creator deems them to be reasonably unbiased.

This market resolves at 50% if the performance on benchmarks is approximately equal (i.e., less than 3-5% performance and/or evaluated performance significantly overlaps.