Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United States Congress passes legislation to increase or suspend the debt ceiling before January 1, 2026. It resolves to NO if Congress fails to pass such legislation by that date.

Background

The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations. The U.S. is facing a potential default on its approximately $36 trillion debt between mid-July and early October 2025 unless the debt ceiling is raised or suspended.

Congress has historically raised or suspended the debt ceiling numerous times to prevent default, though the process has often been politically contentious. A default would have severe economic consequences, including increased interest rates, market instability, and potential recession.

Considerations

• Bipartisan efforts, such as the Responsible Budgeting Act introduced by Representatives Scott Peters and Bill Huizenga, aim to reform how Congress handles the debt limit.

• The exact timing of when the Treasury would exhaust its "extraordinary measures" (the point at which default becomes imminent) is subject to change based on government revenues and expenditures.

• Political dynamics, including party control of Congress and the White House, may significantly influence the debt ceiling negotiations.