Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ103Dec 31
19%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This will resolve by the same criteria as Polymarket, judged independently by me: Which bills will become law in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 6875 (119th) — “AI OVERWATCH Act.”
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
28% chance
Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026?
30% chance
Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
47% chance
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
29% chance
🏛️ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? 🏛️
14% chance
Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
8% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
78% chance
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
49% chance
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
12% chance
What AI regulations will the US Congress pass into law before January 3, 2027? [ADD ANSWERS]