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MANIFOLD
What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Reform?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ225
2035
5%
Closed autocracy
5%
Electoral autocracy
45%
Electoral democracy
45%
Liberal democracy

Resolution is by the United Kingdom country-year observation for 2034 in the first official V-Dem dataset release containing that year, using the Regimes of the World (v2x_regime) codes.

Official data and codebooks: https://www.v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/

The four outcomes correspond to:

  • 0: Closed autocracy

  • 1: Electoral autocracy

  • 2: Electoral democracy

  • 3: Liberal democracy

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