Options resolve N/A if Reform UK's change in council seats (seats after - seats before) following the 2026 local elections is lower than the threshold, YES if there is a UK general election in 2026 or 2027, and NO otherwise.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Above +1200, followed by Above +600 and Above +900 are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).

If Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?

How many seats will Reform UK win in the 2026 Senedd election?

36.7

Which party will have the most councillors in the UK after the 7 May 2026 local elections?

What will Reform UK's change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?

1,466

What will Labour's change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?

-1,029

Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?

-4% 1d10% chance

What will the Liberal Democrats' change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?

89

What will the Conservatives' change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?

-487

What will the Green Party's change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?

404

Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?

21% chance

Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election

39% chance

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