If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2
275Ṁ9582029
2.69 points
expected1D
1W
1M
ALL
13%
0.0 - 1.0
29%
1.0 - 2.0
30%
2.0 - 3.0
10%
3.0 - 4.0
7%
4.0 - 5.0
4%
5.0 - 6.0
3%
6.0 - 7.0
1.7%
7.0 - 8.0
1.7%
8.0 - 9.0
0.9%
9.0 - 10.0
Resolves at the sum of the Democracy Index of the countries that occupy the territory that Russia occupied before the Russian invasion in 2022 (including Crimea), weighted by the population living in that territory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2.77
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.67
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.44
Will Russia/Ukraine break their ceasefire before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will global approval of Russia decline in 2024, according to Gallup?
44% chance
What will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?
2.1
If Vladimir Putin is not in power in Russia, what will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?
3.5
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
27% chance
Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?
18% chance
Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 80% in 2025?
26% chance