Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?

Question

I am male and I will be a junior next year, aiming for USAMO gold.

I got 29 on JMO26; the Red MOP cutoff is 30, with or without tiebrakers. I fakesolved P5 in contest.

This market is created to encourage myself to study harder, so I reserve the right to bet YES on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (11 traders, as of May 1, 2026).

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