After their incredible midterms, Democrats are much closer to a veto level majority than thought possible. They'll still need Republican votes, but: Two-thirds of the House is 290. At about 260 seats, Democrats need roughly 30 Republicans. In the Senate, if they end up with 56 seats, 67 votes will take 11 Republicans. This market resolves YES if Trump vetoes a bill, and that veto is subsequently overridden in both chambers and passed. NO otherwise, whenever he leaves office.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 41% chance (10 traders, as of Nov 5, 2026).

Will Trump have a veto overridden before leaving office?

MANIFOLD

Will Trump have a veto overridden before leaving office?

Ṁ1kṀ985

2029

41%

chance

ALL

After their incredible midterms, Democrats are much closer to a veto level majority than thought possible. They'll still need Republican votes, but:

Two-thirds of the House is 290. At about 260 seats, Democrats need roughly 30 Republicans.
In the Senate, if they end up with 56 seats, 67 votes will take 11 Republicans.

This market resolves YES if Trump vetoes a bill, and that veto is subsequently overridden in both chambers and passed. NO otherwise, whenever he leaves office.

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