If Saxony-Anhalt holds a snap election before 2028, will the AfD win an absolute majority?
6
Ṁ1kṀ3442027
44%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the AfD wins more than half of all seats in the Landtag in a snap election held before Jan 1, 2028.
Resolves NO if a snap election is held in that window and the AfD wins half or fewer of the seats.
Resolves N/A if no snap election is held by then.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If nobody is elected minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, will the AfD win an absolute majority in the repeat election?
47% chance
Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
61% chance
Will the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?
61% chance
Will the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elect a Ministerpraesident on or before 6 November 2026?
22% chance
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
57% chance
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
30% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
23% chance
Saxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
86% chance
Will the AfD control chancellorship before 2031?
20% chance