Comercially available nuclear powered phone by 2050?
Comercially available nuclear powered phone by 2050?
20
1kṀ7662050
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is a comercially available mobile phone or a similiar device (say, a smart watch) in any country that has an effective nuclear powered battery by 2050.
This would imply that the phone can fully run off of the battery and does not require charging during its lifespan. Replacing the battery would also qualify, say if it has a relatively short lifespan, but no less then 6 months.
Market inspired by:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will an atomic phone be sold by 2031?
7% chance
Will the "BV100" nuclear-powered battery become commercially available by end of 2025?
43% chance
Will a nuclear battery be available for consumers in 2024?
5% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2050?
64% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?
28% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2045?
66% chance
Will there be a fusion reactor generating electricity commercially by the end of 2035?
31% chance
Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2040?
66% chance
Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2035?
20% chance
Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2050?
70% chance