By 2033, will at least one top-10 dating app allow users to rank people?
By 2033, will at least one top-10 dating app allow users to rank people?
12
1kṀ2472033
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is not about internal rankings created by an algorithm, such as Tinder's "Elo score", but about dating apps that would allow some form of explicitly saying "I like this woman more than I like this woman", or similar.
(Shamelessly trying to meme this into existence. It's easier than trying to start my own dating startup, though potentially less profitable.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Tinder still be the top dating app in 2026
45% chance
Will a dating app implement radical transparency before 2026?
44% chance
Will the portion of relationships starting on dating apps peak above 70%?
75% chance
Will the portion of relationships starting on dating apps peak above 90%?
28% chance
Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?
46% chance
Will the portion of relationships starting on dating apps peak above 80%?
47% chance
What will be the male/female split of the most popular AI girlfriend/boyfriend app in 2035?
Will Manifold Love get 10% as popular as Tinder within the next 5 years?
4% chance
Does a major dating app (e.g. Tinder/Grindr/etc) require ID age verification by 2030
84% chance
Will Manifold Love get 1% as popular as Tinder within the next 5 years?
6% chance