From Claude: That 60% prediction market for 23andMe shareholders getting anything? Way too optimistic. I'd put it at 15-20% tops.

Look at the math: $256M sale price to Regeneron versus $100-500M in liabilities, plus the $35M DIP financing that gets paid first, plus all the bankruptcy admin costs (which are notoriously expensive). Shareholders only get paid after everyone else, and there's almost certainly not enough to go around. The company burned through cash rapidly (down to $79M from $216M in just 9 months), has that $30M data breach settlement hanging over it, and expensive real estate leases they're trying to escape. Their Q3 FY2025 report showed a $26.8M net loss on $60.3M revenue, and management explicitly stated there was "substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern."

Chapter 11 bankruptcy follows a strict payment priority - secured creditors, administrative expenses, unsecured creditors, preferred shareholders, and common shareholders dead last. The Section 363 sale process is designed to maximize value for creditors, not shareholders. When the deal closes in Q3 2025, expect the proceeds to be distributed according to this waterfall, with likely nothing left for equity.

The only reason I'm not saying 5% is that companies sometimes throw shareholders a bone (like nearly worthless warrants) just to avoid the hassle of shareholder lawsuits. Plus Wojcicki remains on the board, and Regeneron might want to maintain goodwill with customers who are also shareholders. Also, 23andMe has no debt on its balance sheet, which is actually a positive factor - though they've got plenty of other liabilities.

But realistically, common shareholders are likely getting pennies at best, and most likely nothing at all. The stock was trading under $20M market cap before bankruptcy for good reason - the market had already priced in the equity being essentially worthless. Plus, the $400M Lemonaid acquisition in 2021 was a massive cash drain that failed to deliver hoped-for diversification. Anyone betting on significant shareholder recovery is either uninformed about bankruptcy mechanics or extremely optimistic about the actual liability figures.