
Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?
12
1kṀ25632028
95%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.
Will this hold true for every year between 2023 and 2027 (inclusive)? I will base the resolution on data from the WMO, if available. Otherwise, I will base it on the most reliable measurements I can find.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the world be hotter on average by one degree in 2 years?
8% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
16% chance
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
46% chance
Will a new record for average global temperature happen on Earth before 2030?
98% chance
Will the global near-surface temperature exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average for at least one year in 2023-2027?
99% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2023?
61% chance
Will global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030?
90% chance
Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
70% chance
Will Earth's average yearly temperature be 1.5 degrees by late 2028?
19% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
57% chance