Welcome to Manifold! :) You might want to edit the close date so that people can bet on it until 2026.

@oh I debated this! Wouldn’t keeping it open until 26 impact the viability of the other answers if it fails? I concluded that I was surveying popular opinion as it stands now, rather than trying to predict the outcome. How do you think about these different possibilities?

@PeterB5e43 If you’re trying to get popular opinion of this slice in time, with one vote per user, a simple poll will do. If you’re trying to see how opinions will change over time, a later close date will be more effective. Yes, the other options will decrease in probability as time passes—is there any reason to prevent that? In order for users to not lose mana, they’ll have to continuously update their bets as their beliefs change, which is how many of these markets work.

Let me know if that makes sense! ;)

@oh Very cool - it makes a lot of sense!