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China currently has a second strike nuclear posture, meaning it is not prepared to launch on warning of incoming missiles. Instead it has most of its nuclear warheads in storage, with a focus on survivability for a second strike.
This market will resolve YES if at any point before 2027 China adopts a ‘launch on warning’ doctrine.
For clarity, the ability to shift to a launch-on-warning posture during heightened tensions will not count unless such a shift actually occurs.
The following may help in forming a view:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/china-nuclear-missiles.html
https://blog.ucsusa.org/gregory-kulacki/xi-jinpings-thoughts-on-chinas-nuclear-weapons/
https://www.icsin.org/publications/launch-on-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture
https://thediplomat.com/2015/05/strategic-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture/