Resolves YES if Wikipedia and/or the Liberal Democrat's official website list Ed Davey as party leader on polling day of the next UK general election after July 2024.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 58% chance (9 traders, as of Mar 13, 2026).

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

15% chance

Who will be the leader of the Liberal Democrats going into the next UK general election?

If this person is leader of the Lib Dems going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Lib Dems?

How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win at the next general election?

73

Will a party Nigel Farage is a member of win the next UK General Election?

36% chance

Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?

84% chance

Who will lead the Conservative Party into the next UK general election?

If this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?

If this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?

Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?