A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
13
1kṀ2712999
24%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Copied over from Elicit
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get  1,000 to start trading!
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
62% chance
Will a humanoid AGI be used in a public setting by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
78% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
7% chance
In what year will human-level AI first exist?
2038