How many Manifold markets will be created in 2024?
How many Manifold markets will be created in 2024?
10
575Ṁ589
Jan 1
50%
64000
17%
128000
14%
32000
7%
256000
4%Other
4%
512000

The Market Count is the number of markets on Manifold markets created in 2024(PST timezone). Binary, multibinary, bounties, polls, free response all count as 1 market each. New types of markets will count by default unless something about them makes them awkward to count(such as if multi-binary was implemented by creating separate market objects internally). Markets on other products in the Manifold brand will count if they are running on the same infrastructure and in the same database tables. (so Salem tournaments don't count, but Manifold Love does.)

Resolves to the linear interpolation between nearest bounding answers, or 100% to an option if it is exact.

Example: There are 1400 markets. Then this market resolves to (1400 - 1000) / (2000 - 1000) = 60% 1000 and 40% 2000.

New options will be added at double the previous largest as needed.

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1y

I ran a simple script, and in the last month, 9182 markets were added. Without any user growth over the next year, that extrapolates to around 108k markets

1y

@TonyPepperoni I added 3 levels of options since I saw Other was at 80%.

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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

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