Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
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From https://metaculus.com/questions/17104/3-frontier-labs-issue-statement-before-2026/
As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, (source). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.
"3 Frontier Labs" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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