Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?
Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?
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From https://metaculus.com/questions/17095/us-restricts-compute-before-2026/
Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.
Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.
Legal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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