Colombia elections: if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, will there be widespread violence in Colombia?

Question

YES: will resolve as yes if more than 10 die because of violence directly attributed by mayor news site (El tiempo or el espectador).

NO: if less than 10 or not directly attributed to election violence

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 26% chance (4 traders, as of Jun 22, 2026).

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