OpenAI has said its upcoming Astra model reaches its “Critical” cybersecurity capability threshold. This market asks whether the U.S. government will subsequently restrict Astra, including after its release, similar to its restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable. The market resolves: YES if the U.S. government materially restricts Astra’s availability or use before January 1, 2027. NO if Astra is released and no such restriction occurs. Government criticism or investigations without an actual restriction do not count. Voluntary restrictions by OpenAI do not count.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (6 traders, as of Sep 9, 2026).

Will OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?

OpenAI has said its upcoming Astra model reaches its “Critical” cybersecurity capability threshold.

This market asks whether the U.S. government will subsequently restrict Astra, including after its release, similar to its restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable. The market resolves:

YES if the U.S. government materially restricts Astra’s availability or use before January 1, 2027.
NO if Astra is released and no such restriction occurs.

Government criticism or investigations without an actual restriction do not count. Voluntary restrictions by OpenAI do not count.

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