This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Wisconsin, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00Fox News projects Wisconsin for Trump and therefore the Presidency
Halperin: “This is based on three sources — two Republicans, one Democrat — all of whom know the state quite well and all of whom told me today … they would be somewhere between surprised and shocked if Kamala Harris won Wisconsin … So reorient yourself away from news framing that says it's all about Pennsylvania. She could win Pennsylvania and lose the election because she doesn't win Wisconsin. Watch Wisconsin.” https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1852511370085863800?t=TOG9_eM8-wdggxaV4RW3hw&s=19
@MikePa67d I wouldn't be surprised if Wisconsin is redder than PA, as it was in 2020. I used to think it would be the most vulnerable Biden state to flip in 2024 before polls showed the Sun Belt being much more vulnerable.
Why did Manifold create the same market twice?
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-ee07598f45ea
(odds currently off by 4% if someone wants better odds on Kamala)