Background
Mircea Cărtărescu is a renowned Romanian novelist, poet, and essayist who has been consistently mentioned as a top contender for the Nobel Prize in Literature. He was among the favorites for the 2024 prize and continues to be considered a strong candidate for future awards.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the year in which Mircea Cărtărescu wins the Nobel Prize in Literature. If he wins the prize in any year from 2025 through 2030, the corresponding year option will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO. If he does not win the prize by the end of 2030, "Not by 2030" will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
The market will resolve based on the official announcement from the Swedish Academy, which typically occurs in early October of each year. If Cărtărescu passes away before winning the prize, and has not won by 2030, the market will resolve to "Not by 2030" (as Nobel Prizes are not awarded posthumously).
Considerations
The Swedish Academy has sometimes favored lesser-known authors over prominent favorites
An author can only win the Nobel Prize in Literature once, so if Cărtărescu wins in any given year, all subsequent years will automatically resolve as NO
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