Will the Tontine surviving player count be 100 or less as of 2026-1-1?
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 100 or less as of 2026-1-1?
3
100Ṁ4492026
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-12-2, 205 players remain.
The market resolves YES if the living count is 100 or less as of 12:05 AM EST on 2026-1-1, and NO if the living count is 101 or more at that time. It resolves early to YES if the living population should fall to or below 100 before that time, and to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.