How many players will lose Tontine within the calendar year 2026?
1
Ṁ1kṀ3852027
42 players
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
7%
0 ~ 11
9%
12 ~ 23
17%
24 ~ 29
24%
30 ~ 35
12%
36 ~ 41
9%
42 ~ 49
8%
50 ~ 72
8%
73 ~ 99
7%
>= 100
https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2025-01-30, 132 players remain, and 3 players have been eliminated thus far this year.
The market resolves to the range containing the number of Tontine players who are eliminated between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31 inclusive.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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