Between Oct 15 2023 and EOY 2028, will the US unemployment rate be continuously above 8% for at least a year?
Between Oct 15 2023 and EOY 2028, will the US unemployment rate be continuously above 8% for at least a year?
4
90Ṁ602029
30%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve based on https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm or other BLS source if that page is deleted or unclear. 8.0% counts as "above 8%".
Historical data: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000?years_option=all_years
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 5.5% in 2025?
70% chance
Will unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
27% chance
Will there be >15% unemployment at any time prior to January 1st 2026?
10% chance
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 6.5% in 2025?
38% chance
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
25% chance
If the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)
13% chance
Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?
30% chance
Will US unemployment be 10% or more before 2030?
23% chance
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
13% chance
US unemployment rate EOY2024