Will "X explains Z% of the variance in Y" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
2
Ṁ1kṀ662027
18%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post X explains Z% of the variance in Y is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
26% chance
Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "An Ambitious Vision for Interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "This is a review of the reviews" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
8% chance
Will "Judgements: Merging Prediction & Evidence" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "How Well Does RL Scale?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "Von Neumann's Fallacy and You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "The Intelligence Curse" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "The Tale of the Top-Tier Intellect" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance