
Will "The Compendium, A full argument about extinct..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ129Feb 1
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Compendium, A full argument about extinction risk from AGI is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will "The Best Reference Works for Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "The Eldritch in the 21st century" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "The Most Common Bad Argument In These Parts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
25% chance
Will "Precedents for the Unprecedented: Historical ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "The News is Never Neglected" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "The Tale of the Top-Tier Intellect" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "The Best Lack All Conviction: A Confusing Day..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "That Mad Olympiad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Reviewing LessWrong: Screwtape's Basic Answer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "This is a review of the reviews" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
8% chance