Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
1
Ṁ1kṀ1502027
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Recent Frontier Models is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will "Realistic Reward Hacking Induces Different an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "Training on Documents About Reward Hacking In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "Training a Reward Hacker Despite Perfect Labels" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "METR Research Update: Algorithmic vs. Holisti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Natural emergent misalignment from reward hac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "Erasmus: Social Engineering at Scale" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance