Will "Everyone has a plan until they get lied to th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5
Ṁ1kṀ6302027
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Everyone has a plan until they get lied to the face is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "What’s the short timeline plan?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "Plans A, B, C, and D for misalignment risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "How will we update about scheming?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "Unexpected Things that are People" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "A non-review of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyon..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "The News is Never Neglected" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "It's hard to make scheming evals look realist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "The Failed Strategy of Artificial Intelligenc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
10% chance
Will "If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, a semi-out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance