Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
2
Ṁ1kṀ2692027
11%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post ARC progress update: Competing with sampling is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
26% chance
Will "Simplex Progress Report - July 2025" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "How Well Does RL Scale?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "OpenAI #10: Reflections" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
29% chance
Will "Good if make prior after data instead of before" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "AI 2027: Responses" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Checking in on AI-2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
10% chance
Will "Scientific breakthroughs of the year" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Towards Alignment Auditing as a Numbers-Go-Up..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance