Detroit LVT: Will the plan "fail spectacularly"? (2028)
Detroit LVT: Will the plan "fail spectacularly"? (2028)
10
1kṀ399
2029
9%
chance

Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here:
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/10/05/detroit-wants-to-be-the-first-big-american-city-to-tax-land-value

This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date.


This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets)


Commenter Yancey Ward:

This will fail spectacularly. Land is vacant in Detroit because it is unprofitable to build anything of value on it since the costs of building will exceed by a large margin the market value of the new construction. Detroit is a shithole.

All that is going to happen is that all the vacant land not already owned by the city will simply be abandoned to the city rather than pay the tax on worthless land. Most of the owners would have sold long ago were there any buyers of such land.

Regardless of the particulars, if general consensus seems to clearly and unambiguosly be that the plan has "failed spectacularly" (generally implying that Detroit is somehow clearly and obviously much worse off after the change than it was before), this market resolves YES.

This will be in my sole and admittedly subjective judgment. If people think I'm too biased come resolution time, I'll be happy to defer resolution to Manifold staff or another arbiter.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules