How will the US presidential transfer of power happen?
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Plus
20
Ṁ4188
Jan 21
98%
The transfer of power happens normally. Trump is sworn in without incident in Jan 20 2025, similar to 2016.
6%
At least one major mainstream newspaper op-ed or headline casts doubt on the legitimacy of the election results
4%
Significant riot or disruption occurs on or before inauguration day (Example: a democrats' version of the Jan 6 events, or upheaval at any state capitol in relation to the election).
4%
A significant contingent of democrats claim the election was stolen/fraudulent (similar to R's "stop the steal" movement in 2016). (Example: vote tampering, foreign involvement, ...)
2%
Trump is not sworn in due to some medical emergency.
1%
Trump resigns voluntarily before inauguration

Add your own answers!

Answers will be resolved according to my subjective judgment of reporting by at least one major mainstream news source. Market closes on inauguration day. I won't bet on this market.

  • Example: If a small number of Twitter users calls the election fraudulent but this isn't reported in a major newspaper, related questions resolve NO. It doesn't count as "a significant contingent of democrats believing the election fraudulent" unless reported by a news source, even if they're people I follow.

  • Example: if the NY Times reports that some academic professor uncovered evidence of vote tampering, related questions resolve YES.

Please don't add meme answers. I may resolve these as N/A at my discretion.

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How would you describe your news intake? Primarily cable news? YouTube? Twitter/X? Reddit? Podcasts? ...Facebook?

If applicable, what/who are the content creators you primarily get your news from?

I think these answers greatly influence how these markets will be judged.

@Quroe Who, me?

@Quroe I’ll go by NYTimes, CNN, Washington Post, Business Insider, Forbes, New Yorker, ABC/CBS/NBC, etc. I’ll allow op-eds in these. No twitter/facebook/etc, even big names. I consider Epoch Times and OWN too fringe/fascist to be reliable sources for this question. I’m torn on Fox.

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