Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2028?
Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2028?
1
70Ṁ102028
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If there is a lack of clarity about what occurred I will make a good faith attempt to determine it, using all available sources.
I will not bet in this market.
Definitions of PLA aircraft and other nation's militaries will be expansive rather than narrow.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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