Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2030?
Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2030?
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11%
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This question is defining 'bullfighting' as 'an event where in the normal course of events a bull is killed in the ring'.
There are other styles of bullfighting, notably Portuguese, where the bull is attacked in the ring and slaughtered outside of it after the event.
Because this question is trying to measure the likelihood of Spain making a national move on this issue, I am adopting a more realistic interpretation of what a 'ban' might look like.
This will resolve YES if Spain bans bullfighting where the bull is killed in the ring by close of question time. It will resolve NO otherwise.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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