Will any Alien Enemies Act victims be returned from El Salvador to US before 2035?
Will any Alien Enemies Act victims be returned from El Salvador to US before 2035?
8
100Ṁ1942034
66%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On March 15, 2025, President of the United States Donald Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act to deport over 200 suspected members of Tren de Aragua.
This Market resolves YES if any victims of this invocation are returned to the United States before 2035. Resolves YES if they are brought to the US, brought to trial, found guilty, and returned to El Salvador. Resolves YES if they are brought to a US territory such as Guam or Puerto Rico, or a US military base, such as those at Aruba and Curacao. Does NOT resolve yes if they are transferred to another country, such as Venezuela. But if they decide on their own to enter US territory thereafter, resolves YES. If El Salvador itself finds them not guilty, releases them, and they return to the US, resolves YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the US deport an American citizen before 2029?
68% chance
Will the US knowingly deport at least one citizen to El Salvador for imprisonment by EOY2025?
74% chance
Will the Trump administration deport a US citizen to El Salvador this year?
64% chance
How many people will be deported from the US under Alien Enemies Act authority in 2025?
Aliens kill at least one human before 2035
5% chance
Will we learn that a person who has been deported to El Salvador by March 17th was an American citizen?
26% chance
aliens before 2025 or no???
12% chance
Alien creature kills human anytime through 2038
5% chance
Will a Significant US Immigration Law be Passed in 2025?
45% chance
Will Trump accept El Salvador’s offer to house U.S. criminals?
37% chance