Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a neutron moderator before 2100?
Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a neutron moderator before 2100?
2
70Ṁ242100
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Advantages versus graphite:
1. much resistant to degradation by radiation (less potential energy release under annealing) and much less likely to release radiation into the atmoshpere (fire etc).
2. much higher strength
3. lower & isotropic coefficient of thermal expansion
4. isotropic thermal conductivity
5. slightly higher heat capacity
6. automatically very low boron content
Disadvantages:
1. Currently more expensive, but the price could come down a lot if better industrial processes are invented and/or the price of energy comes down.
2. Need more material to moderate the reaction (~2.3x the mass?)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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