When will the ‘big one’ happen this year?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ244resolved Jan 1
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%80%
Not in 2025
2%
Q2
10%
Q3
8%
Q4
Earthquake in Japan
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ24 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
Sort by:
The only significant earthquake in Japan last year was offshore and resulted in 0 deaths: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Aomori_earthquake
I'm resolving to "Not in 2025".
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a megaquake anywhere in the world by March 31st, 2026?
17% chance
When will the Big One earthquake happen in the San Andreas Fault?
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?
35% chance
Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
79% chance