Resolves YES if someone makes a Hierarchical Reasoning Models of the type shown in this paper https://arxiv.org/html/2506.21734v1 that is >~100x the size of the 27 million parameter model in the paper, and that has much better performance (comparable to the leap between GPT-2 and GPT-3). Resolves NO if this doesn't happen by the start of 2026.

Hierarchical Reasoning Model

The scaling doesn't have to happen to the parameter count, if I still judge it to be 100x bigger.

I will not trade in this market, and I will throw away mana on resolution such that I get the same amount of mana from resolving either way.