When will the median software engineer employed today be unemployable in any job where they earn more than average due to their skills/experience as a software engineer.
If the job description changes a lot (e.g. instead of writing code, they manage an army of robot coders), that's fine as long they're still benefiting from their software development experience and earning substantially more than somebody who didn't have such experience.
Resolves based on my judgement. I won't trade in this market.
If it hasn't happened by 2040, resolves to the 2037-2040 bucket.
1,000What do you mean by "the median software engineer"? The median is a statistical property of the current distribution which won't exist in the future. You can specify the current median of some ordered set of values of some property that a set of software engineers has, but it makes no sense to talk about the median in the way that you have. It's not well defined.
The median software engineer is an abstract concept that only exists in the context of talking about the specific property you're taking the median of. If you change the distribution or change the property you're talking about, that median software engineer no longer exists.