Will WMDs be used for an attack on the U.S. by 2036?
5
100Ṁ972036
20%
chance
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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) include nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological weapons.
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve YES if any of the following occur within the continental United States, Alaska, or Hawaii before January 1, 2036:
A nuclear weapon detonation
A confirmed biological weapons attack
A confirmed chemical weapons attack
A radiological weapon ("dirty bomb") detonation
The attack must be confirmed by at least two of the following: FBI, Department of Homeland Security, Department of Defense, or CDC. The attack must be intentional - accidental releases or natural outbreaks do not count.
Note: If an attack occurs within a U.S. territory, it will still count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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