Resolves as YES if Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets -- markets that allow users to bet on whether other users think a number will go up or down in perpetuity -- before 2030.

For example, an "Elon Musk" stock is supposed to go up when ... Elon Musk becomes more popular? I don't know. Because the idea is meaningless. A prediction market cannot really have perpetual "stock" markets because the fictitious securities on this website do not pay out until the question is marked as YES or NO or some other definitive market-ending result -- something that cannot happen in a perpetual market, and indeed something that doesn't even happen in the stock market.

According to Warren Buffett, the value of a company's equity is the time-discounted value of the profits that the company will generate before the company dissolves. A share of stock is a prortionate claim of those discounted profits. The price of the share in the market oscillates as people buy and sell. According to value investors, in the short term, price and value can become disconnected because of speculation and emotional trading, but in the long term, price and value converge. People who believe in the efficient market hypothesis (strong form or weak form) believe the market uses price discovery mechanisms to converge on the true value of the stock very quickly.

On the other hand, in a prediction market, a "stock" in a person is purely speculative. There are no "profits" that can be generated by the "stock." The markets, by definition, will not resolve, so you cannot be paid out $1 for a share.