Will a large impact crater be discovered by 2029?
Will a large impact crater be discovered by 2029?
6
150Ṁ632029
26%
chance
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Resolve to YES if a new large impact structure is discovered before January 1, 2029. “Large” is defined as having a diameter of 50 km or more.
According to Earth Impact Database, there are 13 such impact structures with this diameter: Karakul, Vredefort, Chicxulub, Sudbury, Popigai, Manicouagan, Acraman, Morokweng, Kara, Beaverhead, Tookoonooka, Charlevoix, and Siljan Ring. I will use the Earth Impact Database, maintained by the PASSC, as the primary resolution source. If that is not updated, the “List of impact craters on earth” Wikipedia page may also be used. A peer reviewed journal article stating such a discovery would also be sufficient.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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