Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts on X (formerly Twitter) a tweet explicitly stating that a Grok successor model has achieved "AGI-level performance," "AGI has been reached," or substantially equivalent language claiming AGI achievement by December 31, 2026. The tweet must be posted by @elonmusk's verified account and must specifically reference a Grok model version (e.g., Grok 5, Grok 6, etc.). Resolution is based on the literal text of the tweet; claims about "approaching AGI" or "near-AGI capabilities" do not qualify. The market resolves NO if no such tweet is posted by the deadline.

Background

Elon Musk predicts that his company xAI could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next couple of years, and maybe as soon as 2026. In October 2025, Musk stated his estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising. Grok 5 is set to launch in the first 3 months of 2026, with a staggering 6 trillion parameters and higher intelligence density. Musk has a documented history of making optimistic AI predictions and timelines that often shift or are reframed.

Considerations

There is no single agreed upon definition of AGI—IBM describes it as when artificial intelligence can "match or exceed the cognitive abilities of human beings across any task," but defining terms like "cognitive abilities" and "any task" is extremely complicated. This definitional ambiguity means Musk could claim AGI achievement using a narrower interpretation than the scientific consensus. Additionally, Musk's track record suggests he may retroactively redefine what constitutes AGI achievement if Grok 5 does not meet traditional benchmarks.

This description was generated by AI.